| Question |
Response |
| "Do you approve of President Boluarte's performance?" |
6% approve, 89% disapprove |
| "Do you approve of Congress's performance?" |
5% approve, 91% disapprove |
| "Should there be early general elections?" |
82% yes |
| "Do you trust the electoral system?" |
23% yes |
| "Has democracy improved your quality of life?" |
14% yes |
The paradox is striking: Peruvians overwhelmingly want new elections, but they have little faith that elections will produce better outcomes. The country's fragmented party system — with over 20 registered parties, most of them personality-based vehicles with no ideological coherence — means that elections tend to produce weak presidents with no congressional majority, setting the stage for the next cycle of obstruction and impeachment.
Peru's crisis doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's part of a broader pattern of democratic erosion across Latin America that includes:
- Guatemala: President Bernardo Arévalo facing persistent obstruction from a corrupt attorney general
- Ecuador: President Daniel Noboa struggling with gang violence and economic crisis
- Argentina: President Milei's radical economic reforms generating social unrest
- Bolivia: Political fragmentation between Arce and Morales factions of MAS
International observers, including the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union, have issued increasingly alarmed statements about Peru's situation. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs described the crisis as "a warning signal for democratic institutions across the region."
Three scenarios are most likely:
Scenario 1: Impeachment succeeds (25% probability). Boluarte is removed, Congress president Eduardo Salhuana assumes power, and early elections are called for late 2026 or early 2027. This scenario, while popular with the public, risks further destabilizing the political system by establishing impeachment as a normal mechanism for presidential change.
Scenario 2: Impeachment fails, status quo continues (55% probability). Boluarte survives the vote but is further weakened, governing as a lame duck with no capacity for reform until the scheduled 2026 general elections. Economic policy stagnates, social tensions persist, and Peru continues its slow institutional decay.
Scenario 3: Boluarte resigns before the vote (20% probability). Faced with the growing political pressure and historically low approval ratings, Boluarte chooses to resign rather than face the humiliation of impeachment — following the precedent set by Kuczynski in 2018. This scenario would trigger the same constitutional succession mechanism as impeachment but with less political drama.
Regardless of which scenario materializes, one thing is certain: Peru's democratic crisis will not be resolved by changing presidents. It requires structural constitutional reform — reforming the impeachment mechanism, strengthening the party system, addressing the root causes of public distrust, and rebuilding the social contract between the state and its citizens. Whether Peru's fractured political class has the will or capacity to undertake such reforms remains the fundamental unanswered question.
Factual Rectification (UNVERIFIED_CLAIM): Contrary to preliminary reports circulated during the April 2026 Peruvian electoral standoff, the claim that the president of the National Jury of Elections (JNE) resigned is classified as UNVERIFIED_CLAIM (unconfirmed by primary institutional records). Under Article 16 of the Organic Law of the National Jury of Elections (Law No. 26486), membership on the JNE Plenary is non-renounceable during active electoral processes, and magistrate Roberto Burneo remained in constitutional office presiding over the tribunal throughout the adjudication of contested ballots alongside ONPE.
